A smarter way to bet

By RALPH D. RUSSO
AP College Football Writer

Michigan takes a huge step backward. Think at least a few
Wolverines fans who used to bash Lloyd Carr are missing him now?

If you think Southern California, coming off a humbling loss at
the hands of Oregon, is a lock to miss the BCS for the first
time in eight seasons, think again.

As the college football season heads into its final month, the
Trojans could end up being part of an intriguing race for
at-large BCS bids.

The Big Story=

As bad as last season's 3-9 fiasco was for coach Rich Rodriguez
and Michigan, rock bottom for the Wolverines came Saturday in
Champaign, Ill.: a 38-13 loss to an Illinois team that had not
beaten a major college football opponent this season.

After a 4-0 start injected hope into the Michigan fan base and
renewed confidence in Rodriguez, the loss to Illinois - the
Wolverines' fourth straight Big Ten defeat - has brought the
black clouds of despair back to the Big House.

The popular Michigan blog maizandbluenation.com summed it up
this way: "At this point, where we are now and all that's
happened over the last 2 years ... I've never been so depressed
as a Michigan fan.

"I don't even know where we go from here."

Even when Michigan was ranked for a few weeks and freshman
quarterback Tate Forcier looked dynamic running Rodriguez's
spread offense, it was clear Michigan was not yet back to being
the program that has piled up more conference titles and Rose
Bowl appearances than any other in the Big Ten.

But the Wolverines looked like a lock to get back to a bowl game
this season, and that's what made Saturday so bleak. They appear
to have regressed.

They couldn't gain a yard on four plays to grab control against
Illinois. Instead, the moribund Illini roared to life and
Michigan crumbled.

The Wolverines handle the ball as if it were a live grenade,
having committed 21 turnovers. The defense has gone from sketchy
to tackling-optional.

It seems almost weekly that television cameras catch a glimpse
of coaches yelling at each other on the sideline. That might not
mean a thing, but it does make a bad situation look worse.

"We just got a lot of things to fix and get right," Rodriguez
said after the game. "Every person in the program has got to
take it upon themselves to do all they can to get things playing
at a high level."

At 4-0, all the grumbling by Michigan supporters about Rodriguez
not doing things the way they have always been done at Michigan,
went away. Even the NCAA investigation about the coaching staff
overworking players didn't look so bad.

At 5-4, with win No. 5 coming against Delaware State, all the
frustration is back.

Michigan plays Purdue next week at home. With a victory, the
Wolverines will become bowl eligible and double last season's
victory total. Wisconsin and Ohio State come after that.

The man who hired Rodriguez, athletic director Bill Martin, and
gave him a six-year contract worth at least $2.5 million per
year, will retire in September.

Unless the NCAA stuff gets particularly messy, Michigan is not
likely to make another coaching change soon.

But for the first time since Rodriguez was hired, those who were
pessimistic about his ability to lead the program to a
championship level are completely justified.

USC and the BCS=

Barring a collapse by Oregon, USC's record string of Pac-10
titles will end this season at seven.

The Trojans' streak of seven consecutive Bowl Championship
Series appearance is far from dead, though.

If USC can win out and finish 10-2, Pete Carroll's team would be
a strong candidate for an at-large bid. Especially for the
Fiesta Bowl if it losses the Big 12 champion (Texas) to the
national title game.

The Trojans have been to the Rose Bowl the last four seasons. If
their fans aren't too bummed about not being in the national
title game, they might be happy to make a bowl road trip for the
first time since the 2005 Orange Bowl. And what bowl organizer
wouldn't want to tap into the Los Angeles television market?

With Boise State or TCU destined to grab an automatic BCS-buster
bid, and the Southeastern Conference a lock to take one at-large
bid, that would leave two spots up for grabs.

The Trojans could be competing with Notre Dame, Penn State or
Ohio State for the spot.

In case you missed it=

Unless you're a big Sun Belt Conference fan - is there such a
thing? - you most certainly did not notice that North Texas
(2-6) scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to beat winless
Western Kentucky 68-49. Riley Dodge, coach Todd Dodge's son,
accounted for seven touchdowns (four TD passes, three touchdown
runs).

Two seasons ago, North Texas lost to Navy 74-62 in the highest
scoring major college game in NCAA history.

The hurry-up=

- Duke (5-3, 3-1), in David Cutcliffe's second season as coach,
is a victory away from being bowl eligible and could win the ACC
Coastal Division by winning out. The Blue Devils have not been
to a bowl since 1995.

- No freshman has made a greater impact than Bernard Pierce of
Temple, who is third in the nation in rushing (129 yards per
game) for the bowl-eligible Owls (6-2).

- Good coaching job going relatively unnoticed: June Jones has
SMU 4-4.

Looking ahead=

The latest installment of the Saban Bowl takes place in
Tuscaloosa, when No. 3 Alabama faces No. 9 LSU. With all the
talk about a Crimson Tide-Florida SEC championship game, the
Tigers would be in control of the SEC West with a victory.

---=

Ralph D. Russo covers college football for The Associated Press.
Write to him at rrusso(at)ap.org.